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反问题、不确定性量化与机器学习系列报告第六场报告通知
发布时间 : 2021-04-26     点击量:

报告题目:The dynamical model for COVID-19 with asymptotic analysis and numerical implementations


报告时间:2021年4月28日,星期三,上午10:00-11:00


腾讯会议ID:596 856 329


报告人:  刘继军教授,东南大学/南京应用数学中心


报告摘要:

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) emerged at the end of 2019 has a great impact on China and all over the world. The transmission mechanism of COVID-19 is still unclear. Except for the initial status and the imported cases, the isolation measures and the medical treatments of the infected patients have essential influences on the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we establish a mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission involving the interactive effect of various factors for the infected people, including imported cases, iso- lating rate, diagnostic rate, recovery rate and also the mortality rate. Under the assumption that the random incubation period, the cure period and the diagnosis period are subject to the Weibull distribution, the quantity of daily existing infected people is finally governed by a linear integral-differential equation with convolution kernel. Based on the asymptotic behavior and the quantitative analysis on the model, we rigorously prove that, for limited external input patients, both the quantity of infected patients and its variation ratio will finally tend to zero, if the infected patients are sufficiently isolated or the infection rate is small enough. Finally, numerical performances for the proposed model as well as the comparisons between our simulations and the clinical data of the city Wuhan and Italy are demonstrated, showing the validity of our model with suitably specified model parameters.


报告人简历:

    刘继军,博士。东南大学二级教授,博士研究生导师,享受国务院政府特殊津贴专家。2009年12月至2014年11月任东南大学数学系主任、东南大学理学部副主任。现任东南大学丘成桐中心常务副主任,南京应用数学中心常务副主任。长期从事数学物理反问题、波场散射与逆散射、图像处理、大规模科学计算和介质成像的数学理论和方法的研究。主持完成国家自然科学基金重大研究计划、面上项目、国际合作项目、天元基金、教育部博士点基金、江苏省自然科学基金等项目的研究。已在SIAM J. Appl. Math., SIAM J. Sci. Comput., Inverse Problems, Science China Mathematics, J. Comput. Math., J. Sci. Comput., Appl. Math. Modelling,J. Opt. Soc. Amer.等学术刊物发表论文130余篇,在科学出版社信息与计算科学丛书出版学术专著2本。曾受中国NSFC、德国DAAD、韩国21Brain Project等资助赴国外开展合作研究,  多次应邀访问日本东京大学,日本北海道大学,日本群马大学,韩国延世大学,韩国仁荷大学,香港浸汇大学, 德国哥廷根大学,德国WIAAS,  奥地利RICAM,美国密歇根州立大学,英国利兹大学等高校和研究机构。应邀担任多个国际学术会议的组委会委员、学术委员会委员、大会报告人。


腾讯会议信息:

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会议时间:2021/04/28 10:00-12:30 (GMT+08:00) 中国标准时间 - 北京


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会议 ID596 856 329


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